Home News U.S. Intelligence Sees Russian Plan for Attainable Ukraine Invasion

U.S. Intelligence Sees Russian Plan for Attainable Ukraine Invasion


WASHINGTON — The Biden administration’s rising alarm a few potential Russian invasion of Ukraine relies partly on U.S. intelligence that Moscow has drawn up plans for a army offensive involving an estimated 175,000 troops as quickly as early subsequent yr.

An unclassified U.S. intelligence doc particulars a few of the intelligence findings, together with the positioning of what officers say might finally be 100 battalion tactical teams, in addition to heavy armor, artillery and different tools.

The intelligence was first reported on Friday by The Washington Post.

U.S. officers stress that the intentions of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia stay unclear, and the intelligence doesn’t present that he has determined to hold out the obvious warfare plan.

However the intelligence depicts a Russian army machine springing into motion and positioning itself for an assault in opposition to which consultants say Ukraine’s army would stand little probability. About half of the Russian forces that will be utilized in an invasion are already close to Ukraine’s border, and Moscow is transferring swiftly to construct up a big drive of contract army reservists, in accordance with a Biden administration official who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate delicate intelligence.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would set off a significant nationwide safety disaster for Europe and the Biden administration, which has declared an “ironclad dedication” to Ukraine’s borders and independence.

Jen Psaki, the White Home press secretary, confirmed on Saturday that President Biden and Mr. Putin would maintain a safe video name on Tuesday.

Mr. Biden, she stated, “will underscore U.S. considerations with Russian army actions on the border with Ukraine and reaffirm the USA’ assist for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”

The intelligence doc options satellite tv for pc images indicating a buildup of Russian troops and tools close to Ukraine’s japanese border, and says that Russian plans contain transferring forces to and from Ukraine’s border “to obfuscate intentions and create uncertainty.”

The priority about Mr. Putin’s intentions has been fueled by what U.S. officers name a rise in Russian media disinformation describing NATO and Ukraine as threats to Russia, doubtlessly to create a pretext for a Russian escalation. The administration official stated that Russian officers had additionally proposed info operations inside Ukraine portraying that nation’s leaders as Western puppets appearing in opposition to their nation’s pursuits.

“We’ve been conscious of Russia’s actions for a very long time, and my expectation is we’re going to have an extended dialogue,” Mr. Biden advised reporters Friday night time when requested about the potential for Russia invading Ukraine.

A Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson stated on Friday night time that the USA didn’t search battle with Russia and believed diplomacy was the easiest way to avert a disaster and forestall US.-Russian relations from spiraling additional downward.

U.S. officers have hinted vaguely in latest days that they’ve particular causes for his or her heightened concern about an invasion of Russia’s neighbor, a former Soviet republic that Mr. Putin considers a rightful a part of Russia.

Talking to reporters in Stockholm, Sweden on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken referred to “proof that Russia has made plans for vital aggressive strikes in opposition to Ukraine.” Talking to reporters on his official airplane later that day, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees, referred to “warnings from an intelligence standpoint,” saying “there’s sufficient on the market now to trigger lots of concern.”

Mr. Blinken and different U.S. officers have been consulting with U.S. allies in Europe to plan retaliatory measures in opposition to potential Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine, the place Mr. Putin has lengthy backed a pro-Moscow separatist insurgency and in 2014 annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

Mr. Blinken stated this week that the USA would reply to “Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine” with “high-impact financial measures that we’ve avoided taking previously,” however didn’t present extra particulars.

Mr. Blinken conveyed that warning throughout a Thursday assembly in Stockholm with Russia’s overseas minister, Sergey Lavrov. However it’s unclear whether or not Mr. Putin might be deterred by such threats.

Talking to reporters after his assembly with Mr. Blinken, Mr. Lavrov appeared to scoff on the menace, noting that the USA has repeatedly sanctioned Russia in new and other ways lately.

“There’s at all times a primary time,” Mr. Lavrov stated. “There have been different sanctions they avoided taking previously.”

Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting.